86% of Texas Latino voters rank economy as top concern in midterms

86% of Latino registered voters in Texas consider the economy very important to their congressional vote, according to a recent survey. This economic anxiety, driven by concerns over gas prices, housing costs, and the price of everyday goods, is shaping the 2026 midterm elections as Election Day approaches on November 3.

Texas currently has nearly 6.3 million eligible Latino voters, which represents approximately 31.7% of the state's total eligible electorate, per the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. This demographic shift has altered the political balance in several South Texas counties. Webb, Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election but shifted to Republican majorities in 2024. In Webb County, the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote increased from 38.2% to 51.1%, while in Starr County it rose from 47.5% to 58%.

Political science professor David Crockett of Trinity University describes this group as a swing vote that can be earned by either party. He notes that Latino voters are a growing percentage of both the population and the electorate. While the county-level shifts reflect all voters, they indicate a notable change in the region's political alignment over a single election cycle. Crockett suggests that voters may reassess their support if elected officials struggle with unpopular decisions or governing challenges.

Polls show a split in support between urban and rural areas. A recent poll found that Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Governor Greg Abbott statewide among Latino voters by a margin of 52% to 43%. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 55% to 37%. However, a University of Houston Hobby School survey reveals divergent preferences by geography. Rural Latino voters favor Abbott over Hinojosa 60% to 36%, and Paxton over Talarico 56% to 24%. Conversely, urban Latino voters favor Hinojosa over Abbott 58% to 41%.

Immigration enforcement is another key issue, with 56% of Texas Latino voters believing current efforts have been excessive. Zoe Zamora, who first voted in 2024, emphasizes the importance of community involvement and consistency in policy. She stated, "I like whenever they're really involved in our community and not just saying one thing and then doing something completely opposite."

Turnout remains a critical factor, as midterm elections typically attract fewer voters than presidential contests. Pew Research Center data indicates that Latino voters are currently more engaged than they were at the same stage before the 2022 election. The data also shows that Latino voters supporting Democratic congressional candidates report higher motivation to vote than those supporting Republican candidates.

Both parties face distinct challenges. Democrats must expand their support among Latino voters and compete in communities where Republicans gained ground in 2024. Republicans aim to retain their recent gains while addressing economic and immigration concerns. The results in Bexar County and other redistricted congressional districts in South Texas will provide the first indication of whether the 2024 shift toward Republicans holds or reverses in November.