Lula Claims Fourth Term in Brazil with 4.3 Million Vote Margin

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president of Brazil with 51.79 percent of the vote, a margin of approximately 4.3 million ballots over his rival. The result was declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. This victory ends a race that remained tight through the final hours of counting.

The outcome reverses the first round from earlier this month, when Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula by nearly two percentage points. Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes to Lula's 53.8 million in that earlier ballot. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round had ever won the subsequent runoff. Polls showed the gap closing rapidly in the weeks between the two votes, leaving Bolsonaro ahead by only fractions of a point.

Lula attributed his success to a coordinated digital strategy and high voter turnout. A record 21 percent of voters abstained in the first round, a trend more common among Lula's lower-income base. To counter this, millions joined a WhatsApp channel named "Lula's army" to amplify supportive content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok, overtaking Bolsonaro's digital reach for the first time. He described the final outcome as "a defeat for denialism".

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal and external pressures during the runoff. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. Additionally, a dozen watchdog groups alleged that Meta favoured Bolsonaro's campaign on social media. Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta to avoid "unequal treatment" of candidates, while the company called the allegations "false and unfounded".

International dynamics also shaped the campaign. President Donald Trump, who imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports, called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a "witch-hunt." Lula positioned himself against Trump's "colonial" designs and pursued a multilateral policy balancing relations with the US, China, and Russia. He also declined invitations to join a Latin American military coalition targeting drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The result has environmental implications, as deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70 percent under Lula's previous administrations. His government has cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. However, Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips noted that environmental issues appeared only in the final debate, as voters prioritized the economy and public security. Lula will now work with a congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians hostile to environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede, citing a two-hour extension to voting hours. He stated it was "impossible to concede the election result." Phillips believes the challenge is unlikely to succeed given that world leaders are already recognizing Lula's win. Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations, Phillips suggested. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.