Netanyahu faces voters in first Israeli election since 2023 Gaza war

Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens, including about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel, are eligible to cast ballots on Tuesday. This is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in the Gaza Strip. The outcome will determine which coalition leads a government facing multiple active conflicts, international pressure, and internal division.

Two primary blocs are competing for control of the 120-seat Knesset. The pro-Netanyahu coalition includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, the far-right Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism and Shas. The opposition bloc consists of four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. A party must secure at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter parliament.

A survey by public broadcaster KAN, conducted before a publication ban took effect on Friday, projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. The remaining seats were expected to go to unaffiliated groups, including the Arab-majority Ra'am and Joint List parties. Because neither side appears to have the 61 seats required for a majority, coalition negotiations could become complicated. Both major blocs have largely ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties, increasing the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Voters are focusing on domestic issues such as security failures prior to the 2023 attacks and the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also oppose Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts, which they argue weaken the liberal democratic order. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal opposition factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

International dynamics are also influencing the campaign. Several allies have sanctioned Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, and many nations have criticized ongoing attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. Dozens of envoys walked out during Netanyahu's September 24 address to the UN General Assembly. As Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has led the country for more than 15 of the past 17 years. He faces corruption charges filed in 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel is a key variable. Polls suggest participation could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing Arab parties to win up to 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting 70 percent turnout, a level not seen in decades. The Central Elections Committee previously barred the Joint List and Ra'am, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision last month. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race due to an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu has positioned his rivals as likely partners for the Arab parties, arguing that only Likud can prevent such an alliance. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, described this as a strategy to keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc secures a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no vote in selecting the government that controls their borders and legal status.