Goldknopf's Faction and Bennett in Line to Break Israel's Election Deadlock

With less than 24 hours remaining before Israeli voters head to the polls, internal political assessments point to two specific actors who may determine the country's next government. Yitzhak Goldknopf, head of the three-seat Agudat Yisrael faction, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett are positioned to break a potential stalemate between the two main blocs.

Analysts suggest Agudat Yisrael could offer backing to a government led by the current opposition in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. This potential deal would not eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties, but it would provide a critical foundation for a coalition. The idea is not new; Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot amid internal friction within United Torah Judaism.

The split within the haredi bloc centers on the military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael has expressed disappointment with the coalition's conduct, while rival faction Degel Hatorah has voiced despair regarding Netanyahu's leadership. Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining commitments to the Likud-led bloc, adding to the uncertainty.

Goldknopf faces a strategic risk. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments indicate that any visible support for a change bloc government could push some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic makes his decision a high-stakes calculation for both sides.

If neither bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, attention shifts to Bennett. He is considered the only leader in the change bloc with the right-wing background to potentially join a Netanyahu-led government. Such a move would require Bennett to shift his base of support, a complicated task given the makeup of his current party.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge, having served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is unlikely to make such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

For now, these scenarios remain political assessments rather than finalized agreements. The next government's formation will depend on whether Goldknopf can navigate his constituency's expectations or if Bennett is willing to cross ideological lines to secure a mandate.