Young Israelis poised to decide 12 Knesset seats in Tuesday election

An estimated 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will cast their first ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 27, holding the potential to determine 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute, which released the estimate, notes that this demographic comprises nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choice could shift the balance of power in the upcoming government.

The cohort’s political alignment has been in flux for years. Many young voters grew up during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and navigated the war that followed the Oct. 7 attack. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, stated that this generation lives in an unstable environment. She noted that while military service often leads to nationalist stances, it also prompts questions about war goals. This complex backdrop has driven high levels of engagement among both Jewish and Arab youth.

Surveys indicate strong intent to participate. A May study by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of potential young voters said they would definitely or likely cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth confirmed these numbers, with 67% of 18- to 22-year-olds certain they would vote and another 19% likely to do so. This motivation exceeds the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 US presidential election.

Key issues for this group include national security and the cost of living. In a Sept. 23 poll by N12, 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. If the election had been held at that time, 16% would have voted for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools often show support for opposition parties like Yashar and Beyachad, challenging the assumption that Jewish youth overwhelmingly favor right-wing factions.

Individual voters cite specific grievances and hopes. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to vote for the opposition change bloc to oust the current government. She criticized the long tenure of Prime Minister Netanyahu and the handling of the war. Omer Gross from Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program, intends to support the Religious Zionist party. He said he supports Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s actions in the West Bank despite disagreements over Gaza policy.

Tomer Shiloh from Herzeliya, also in the same Golan Heights program, plans to vote for Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett. He wants the next government to mandate military service for Haredi men and lower the cost of living. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shefa-Amra, will vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime in his community. He urged his friends to vote on Oct. 27, expressing a desire for change without leaving the country.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited economic pressures as his primary driver for voting for the left-of-center Democrats party. He noted that most university students work while studying to cover tuition and living costs. The high predicted turnout suggests that these personal economic and security concerns will translate into a substantial vote share on Election Day.