Chiefs lose survivor pool trust in Week 8

47%. That is the percentage of simulated games in which a projection model expects the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs to beat the 5-2 Denver Broncos this Sunday. The model runs 10,000 simulations for every NFL game. Its projection for the Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High places them as the less likely winner.

The Chiefs are listed as 1.5-point favorites. They also hold a -125 money-line position. The game is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The model views this matchup as high-risk for survivor pool players. It identifies the Chiefs as a team to fade in Week 8 of the 2026 season.

Kansas City enters this contest following its worst performance of the year. The team lost 20-3 to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The model notes that the Chiefs won the season opener against Denver 31-10 on Sept. 14. Despite that early victory, the current projection favors the visitors.

Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City offense. In six starts, he has completed 64.9% of his passes. He has thrown for 1,474 yards and nine touchdowns. He has four interceptions. Kenneth Walker III leads the rushing attack. He has carried 120 times for 701 yards and six touchdowns. At Seattle, he was held to 36 yards on 14 carries.

The Denver Broncos are the defending AFC West champions. They are currently on a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Bo Nix has completed 59.2% of his passes. He has thrown for 1,271 yards and seven touchdowns. He has three interceptions. The model projects Denver to win 56% of the time against Kansas City.

Week 8 features only 14 games due to four byes. The slate includes several home favorites. The Cardinals host the Cowboys, who are 6.5-point favorites. The Falcons host the Buccaneers, who are 2-point favorites. The Ravens host the Bills, who are 3.5-point favorites. The Browns host the Steelers, who are 3.5-point favorites.

The Colts host the Jaguars, who are 7.5-point favorites. The Vikings host the Lions, who are 3.5-point favorites. The Chargers host the Rams, who are 6.5-point favorites. The Bengals are the largest favorites of the day at 10.5 points over the Titans. The Titans have lost three games by one score and won one by one score in their past five weeks.