Nix faces critical test against Chiefs after worst career stats

ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky believes the upcoming matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs serves as a definitive trial for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Speaking to The Denver Post, Orlovsky stated that a specific type of performance in this game could serve as a springboard for the team to recapture its past success. He noted that while Nix has had rough outings against the Seahawks, Chargers, and 49ers, the season opener against Kansas City represents the lowest point of the young quarterback's career.

In that Week 1 defeat, Nix completed 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His 69.2 passer rating was the tenth-lowest mark of his career. The pressure was intense, as Nix was sacked four times, tying his career high, and turned the ball over three times, also a career record. His expected points added stood at minus 18.9, a figure eight points lower than his next-worst performance in Week 5.

The core of the problem lies in how Nix handles defensive pressure. The Chiefs blitzed him nine times in the opener, and according to Next Gen Stats, he completed just two of those passes for 13 yards. That trend has continued, with Nix currently posting the second-lowest passer rating in the NFL against the blitz. His 40.5% completion rate against extra rushers is the worst in the league, sitting six percentage points below the next-closest quarterback.

Sean Payton, the Broncos' head coach, noted that the NFL is a copycat league, with teams attempting to replicate the defensive schemes used by Kansas City coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo frequently brings extra linebackers and safeties to the line of scrimmage to confuse Nix with various pressure looks. Payton explained that diagnosing these looks is significantly more difficult on the road. He cited the advantage of home crowds in helping players identify coverage through motion and shifts, a process he described as undressing the defense.

Nix and center Luke Wattenberg share the burden of protecting the quarterback. While Wattenberg can set the initial protection, Nix has a clearer view of the defensive alignment. Orlovsky said that consistently solving these defensive puzzles can feel choking for a quarterback. He added that before the ball is even snapped, players are on edge, anticipating pressure that may or may not arrive. This constant anticipation can prevent quarterbacks from playing freely.

Nix acknowledged the difficulty of the situation, stating that he has watched the Week 1 game several times in preparation. He noted that the game does not leave him excited about how it ended, but he believes there are many things to focus on and correct. He emphasized that the upcoming contest will be completely different from the opener and must be played as such.

The Broncos have shown some improvement in pass protection recently. The offensive line has allowed a 36.6% pressure rate against blitzes, the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. Last week against the Cardinals, Nix completed four of 12 passes for 61 yards and a touchdown when facing a blitz. Orlovsky pointed to a throw to Courtland Sutton and a back-shoulder pass to Jaylen Waddle as encouraging signs, though he does not view them as a turning point.

Orlovsky remains concerned about inconsistencies in Nix's play. He observed moments where Nix plays too fast or fails to see the field the same way as his receivers. He also noted instances where Nix hesitates on open throws. For Sunday's game, Orlovsky said Denver needs a specific plan for the various pressures Spagnuolo will employ. Nix must have the guts to test the defense downfield with longer throws while also threatening the secondary with his ability to scramble.

The outcome of this game will largely determine the Broncos' standing in the AFC West. Orlovsky described the challenge as real, hoping for a better performance but acknowledging the high bar Nix must clear to prove his ability to handle elite defensive schemes.