CFP Projections Shift After Week 8 Upsets

The College Football Playoff field is still in flux as the 2026 season enters its final stretch. Week 8 results have reshuffled the projected brackets for the 12-team tournament.

Five ranked teams fell to unranked opponents on Saturday. The Big 12 conference saw major changes when No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 2 BYU both suffered their first losses of the season. BYU dropped a double-overtime game to UCF. In the SEC, No. 19 Texas beat No. 7 Ole Miss to stop a streak of back-to-back conference losses.

Under the new rules for the 2026 season, Power 4 conference champions and the top Group of 6 team receive automatic bids. The remaining seven slots go to the highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot if it finishes in the top 12. The top four seeds receive first-round byes, while seeds 5 through 8 host the other four teams on their home fields.

ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released their latest predictions for the first-round games scheduled for December 18 and 19. Bonagura sees No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia, No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Indiana, No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 BYU, and No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 Notre Dame. Schlabach projects a different set of matchups, including No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 UCLA and No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana.

The quarterfinals are set for December 30 and January 1. Bonagura predicts No. 5 Georgia will face No. 4 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Schlabach sees No. 5 UCLA hosting No. 4 Notre Dame. The other quarterfinal pairings vary between the two analysts, with Ohio State and Miami appearing as top contenders in both brackets.

Bowl season begins on December 12 with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The season concludes with the CFP National Championship on January 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Final matchups will be determined on Selection Day, December 6.

The schedule includes games at major venues such as the Superdome in New Orleans and Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The semifinals are scheduled for January 14 and 15, leading into the title game in two weeks.